Tuvalu Vanuatu

Climbing Seaside Threatens Small Pacific Islands Nationals

Dark climatic forecasts may seem like sci-fi in many parts of the globe. However, in the minute ocean-stricken Caribbean state of Tuvalu, the crises have already been aroused. The Tuvalu region has nine low-lying plains of only 26 km2, and in recent years the "royal tides", which peaked in February, have risen higher than ever before.

At some point in the next 50 years, the 11,800 people will have to be displaced if the rise in maritime levels proves correct. Tuvalu could be the first land to disappear from the landscape due to overheating. However, in one sense the Tuvaluans can actually be the happy ones - at least in comparison to some of their fellow islanders in the North.

New Zealand's New Zealand authorities already take up a Tuvaluan rate every year, many of which have found employment in Auckland' fresh strawberries and packaging operations. Tuvalu has been reassured that in the most serious case it will accommodate the people. This is a life artery that many similarly endangered Islamic countries - such as Kiribati, Vanuatu, the Marshall Islands, the Cook Islands, Fiji and the Solomon Islands - do not yet have.

Whilst their tales may not be as convincing as those of Tuvalu, such countries contain avocets that can also disappear. Even for them, even prudent assessments of the rise of waters will make living on once tranquil island environments more unpleasant, overcrowded and very, very soaking. "The disappearance of entire Palestinian isles from the flooding is indeed dramatic," said Asterio Takesy, Executive Vice President of the Asia-Europe Regional Environment Program, an inter-governmental organisation headquartered in Apia, Samoa.

" It is already facing a cauldron of issues that are said to be exacerbated by climatic change: coast degradation, salt waters in tara and touristic areas, lack of drinking waters, anemia caused by external assistance, diseases, dependency on sugary manufactured carrage. In a recent poll by the WHO, the South Pacific is the world's most obese area.

"We are not only facing the challenge of global warming, because we have a growing populace and thus a greater burden on resources," said Ashvini Fernando, World Wildlife Fund South Pacific Program co-ordinator in Fiji. "Climatic changes make these burdens so much greater. "A number of specialists have warned that these problems will eventually unite in a tidal stream of expatriates escaping from the Pacific isles.

In fact, there are already indications of flight: According to a survey by the GOA, the number of requests for a stay in New Zealand from the Pacific Islands eligibility rose strongly in 2005 and 2006 in comparison to 2003. A number of countries' economy is already dependent on transfers from insular people who have gone abroad to find work, and this figure could be further increased by the effects of climatic changes.

Meanwhile, communities from low-lying areas in Vanuatu and the Carteret Isles of Papua New Guinea have already been displaced. And as in many of these lagoon countries, there is little higher up inhabitable space that the population can move to. "The more they do, the more they end up on someone else's property or on the other side of the sea because the small size of the archipelago makes them too small.

" This could lead to the use of resources that push the government to the limits of resilience and a call for relocation to developing Pacific or elsewhere. "And, as the effects of climatic changes become more and more serious, this will increase the urgent need. "In the event of a massive flight, lands like Tuvalu - which have emergency response programmes and strong ties with a counterpart like New Zealand - will have an upside.

For example, the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia could profit from stronger historic relations with the United States (both former US-managed fiduciary territories). Most of the world' s losing countries will be people who are not skilled, poverty-stricken islands who find it difficult to migrate, especially in countries that are experiencing political turbulence such as the Solomon Islands. This may be partly due to the fact that the predicted climatic changing scenario still seems too alarming and far removed to be accepted.

In Tuvalu itself, many people do not see flooding as an emergency issue, said Lono Leneuoti, a Tuvalusian tourist bureau. "Environmental activists like Namakin are focusing on the struggle to escape, preparing adjustment agendas and calling on nations like the United States and Australia to take the leadership in reducing missions.

Other groups in the Pacific Regional Environment Program have teamed up with other groups in the area to launch a $34 million adjustment measure that will include the preparation of flood preparedness streets in the Federated States of Micronesia, the improvement of marine faces and dewatering on the Cook Islands, the relocation of gardening, the cultivation of salt-resistant plants and the revival of the fisheries industries in the Solomon Islands fortress.

However, even Takesy, the program's programme manager, says that such an effort could resemble a "rearrangement of recliners on the Titanic" if less vigorous action is taken by less developed nations to reduce greenhouse gas emission levels. "Takesy said, "I don't think the whole wide globe should stand by and watch, while whole nations are being destroyed by now.

"Do you really want five million furious Pacific Islanders to knock on your door?"